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RBI policy review, global markets to dictate trend

Concerns about a global recession may continue to weigh on the domestic bourses which have tumbled in a global equities rout in the past few days. Lack of buying support has accentuated the decline on the bourses
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to press sales. They have sold shares worth Rs 46,661.20 crore in the calendar year 2008 so far (till 16 October 2008).
Investors now await the mid-term monetary policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) due on 24 October 2008. Some reports suggest that RBI is set to cut the repo (repurchase) rate by a steep 50 basis points, to signal a strong shift in policy focus to growth from inflation. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI provides funds to banks against the collateral of government bonds for a day to three days.
On the inflation front, experts feel that the wholesale price index is expected to move downward, and will eventually come down to single-digit numbers by January 2009. Inflation based on the whole price index rose 11.44% in year through 4 October 2008, lower than previous week’s 11.8% rise, data released on 16 October 2008, showed.
Index bellwether Reliance Industries (RIL) will declare its Q2 September 2008 results on 23 October 2008. According per media reports, RIL’s gross refining margins, or GRMs, are expected to decline significantly in Q2. As per research report published by foreign brokerage houses, RIL may report a 4.3% fall in its gross refining margins (GRM) to $13 per barrel in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The GRM is the difference between the selling price of the finished products and raw material cost.
Reliance Industries has 13.64% weightage in Sensex and therefore any sharp fall in the stock may drag the key indices further lower.
Other September 2008 quarter results due next week include Jaiprakash Associates, Reliance Natural Resources, Reliance Petroleum, Idea Cellular, Jet Airways (India), MIC Electronics, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, MRF, Pantaloon Retail (India), Federal Bank, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Rajasthan, Rolta India, United Phosphorus, Titan Industries, Ashok Leyland, Chennai Petroleum Corporation, Emami, Finolex Industries, Geodesic, Hero Honda Motors, Hindustan Motors, Hindustan Zinc, Indiabulls Securities, and Marico, among other will declare their September ended quarter results next week.

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